Jobs miss boosts rate‑cut bets. Bitcoin keeps its cool.

Markets now expect the Fed to cut rates on Sept 16–17 after a weak U.S. jobs report. Bitcoin is steady around ~$111k; Ether is softer on ETF outflows. Next big mileposts: CPI on Sep 11 and the FOMC decision Sep 16–17.

What happened?

• U.S. jobs: August added 22,000 positions; unemployment rose to 4.3%. That’s a slowdown.

• Rates reaction: Traders quickly priced a 25 bp cut this month; bond yields fell.

• Crypto snapshot:• BTC ~ $111k — holding up.• ETH ~ $4.3k — lagging this week.• SOL > $200 — mixed along with other high‑beta alts.

• ETF flows:• Bitcoin spot ETFs saw strong inflows earlier this week, then a mixed day yesterday.• Ether spot ETFs showed several straight outflow days — part of why ETH underperformed.

• Regulatory drip: The SEC outlined a clearer crypto rulemaking path, and SEC + CFTC staff issued guidance on how regulated U.S. venues might handle certain spot crypto products. Translation: slow but real normalization.

Why crypto cares about rate cuts

• Cheaper money = lighter gravity. Lower rates reduce the discount rate on risk assets (like BTC/ETH).

• The reason matters. A supportive “insurance” cut often lifts prices. A cut that screams “recession risk” can keep alts shaky even if BTC holds.

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Today’s vibe: Slowing growth, not crisis. That’s why BTC is calm while ETH and smaller caps are choppier.

Where prices stand (reference zones, not advice)

• BTC: Momentum test near $114k; supports $105k–$100k.

• ETH: Resistance $4.5k; support $4.2k–$4.1k.

• Alts: Quick to pop on dovish headlines, quick to give back if growth worries rise.

What to watch next

• Sep 11 — CPI: A mild core print would all but lock in a 25 bp cut.

• Sep 16–17 — FOMC: Decision, new dot plot, press conference. Listen for labor‑market cooling and how fast the Fed might ease.

• Daily ETF flows: Ongoing BTC creations are your cleanest demand signal; ETH outflows need to flip for ETH to lead.

• Liquidity tells: Perp funding rates, basis, and order‑book depth around U.S. data releases.

Three simple scenarios

1. Base case — cut by 25 bp.BTC grinds up; ETH catches up if flows stabilize; selective alts work.

2. No cut (dovish guidance).Short wobble; BTC outperforms alts; watch dollar and real yields.

3. Surprise 50 bp cut. Fast spike, but if framed as growth fear, rotation into BTC/ETH, out of illiquid alts.

   
   

Jargon buster

• Spot ETF creations/redemptions: How ETFs add/remove coins. Creations = the fund buys spot, which is direct demand.

• Funding rate: Fee paid between perp long/short traders. Persistent positive funding = long crowding.

• Basis: Futures vs. spot gap. Wider = more leverage/optimism; compressed = caution.

This article is informational and not investment advice.